10 Heismandments, Part II

Yesterday, we analyzed how the first half of the 10 Heismandments apply to #12. Today, we'll take a look at Heismandments 6-10:

6) The winner cannot be considered an obvious product of his system.

There is no denying the fact that Matt Ryan's stats are a result of Steve Logan's offense. However, Ryan is not solely the product of a system. He is seen by many as a Top-10 pick in next year's NFL Draft so it is clear that people have looked beyond the system. If anything, this could work in Ryan's favor. The QB with gaudy numbers who has the best chance to go undefeated is Colt Brennan. It Helps #12's Heisman chances if Brennan is seen as a product of a June Jones offense. Check.

7) If you are a quarterback, running back or multi-purpose athlete at one of the following schools, you have a good chance to win if you have a very good statistical season, are an upperclassmen and your team wins at least 9 games: Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami and Florida State.

None of the above.

8) There are statistical benchmarks for each position in order to be considered:
b. If you are a passing quarterback on a traditional power or national title contender, you need to pass for at least 3,000 yards and must have at least a 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio, with at least 20 TD passes and an efficiency rating of at least 135.0.

Again, only the national title contender could apply to BC here. As for the stats, 3,000 yards, 20+ TDs and an efficiency rating of 135.0+ all seem likely. As of right now, the TD/INT ratio is 2-1 so it's good enough to get Ryan into the debate. With the low INT numbers of some other top quarterbacks, we am not sure it's good enough to win the HT. Check, for now.

9) There will never be another two-time Heisman winner.

Doesn't apply, check.

10) The winner must be likeable.

Don't take our word for it. Ask The New York Times, Sports Illustrated and WEEI. Check.


What does this all mean? Eight of the ten Heismandments apply to Matt Ryan as of today, one is a maybe and one does not. What that tells us is that he is never going to be the leading candidate, no matter how well he does. But if he keeps up the pace and BC keeps winning, he has a very good shot to be one of three people invited to New York on December 8th.

Matt Ryan Shalt Follow The 10 Heismandments

If you are not familiar with The 10 Heismandments, created by HeismanPundit, you should take a look. Chris Huston, the author of the site is a former SID at USC. He worked on the Heisman campaigns of Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart and he knows his stuff. He lays out 10 guidelines which govern the way that the HT is selected. Between today (1-5) and tomorrow (6-10), I will break down the Heismandments and see where Matt Ryan fits in and what his chances might be at this point. If you agree or disagree, use the comments section to say why. Without further ado:

1) The winner must be a quarterback, a running back, or a multi-threat athlete.
Quarterback, check.

2) The winner must be a junior or senior.
Senior, check.

3) The winner must put up good numbers in big games on TV.
1-for-1, Georgia Tech, check.

4) The winner must have some prior name recognition.
The requirement is some recognition. 1+ year as a starter and a darkhorse entering the season is enough. The publicity that Ryan is getting now also works in his favor, check.

5) The winner must be one or more of the following 3:
a) The top player on a national title contender.
b) A player that puts up good numbers for a traditional power that has a good record.
c) A player who puts up superlative single-season or career numbers on a good team, or
numbers which are way out ahead of his Heisman competitors.
BC is not a traditional power, 5b doesn't apply.
There is a chance that Ryan could move way ahead of his competitors but that is only if Brennan, Tebow, Bradford and Woodson see their passing yards go down as they navigate their conference schedules. Ryan also needs to increase the TDs and decrease the INTs, ?.
The best bet to satisfy number 5 at this point is for BC to win out. They don't need to make it to the NC game but they need to get to the Orange Bowl undefeated, ?.

Check back tomorrow for Heismandments 6-10.

What Makes a Heisman?

Here are some quick facts about recent Heisman Trophy winners:

• Since the advent of the BCS (after the '98 regular season), only 1 HT winner didn't play in a BCS game. (Ricky Williams '98, the first year of the BCS)
• In that same time period, only 3 HT winners did not play for the National Championship. (Williams '98, Ron Dayne '99, Carson Palmer '02)
• Since 2000, 6 of the 7 HT winners were quarterbacks, with Reggie Bush '05 being the only exception.
• 4 of the 7 runners-up in that same span were QBs.
• Palmer ('02) was the only HT winner in that same seven year span from a team that lost 2+ games. USC's 2nd loss came on October 5th of that year.

Here is a stat comparison of the QBs who have won the HT since 2000:

Year	QB	Comp. %	Pass YDs	Pass TDs	INTs	Rush YDs	Rush TDs
2000	Weinke	61.7%	4167	33	11	-97	1
2001	Crouch	53.9%	1572	7	11	1229	18
2002	Palmer	63.2%	3942	33	10	-122	4
2003	White	61.6%	3846	40	10	-150	1
2004	Leinart	65.3%	3322	33	6	-44	3
2006	Smith	67.0%	2507	30	5	233	1
2007	Ryan*	59.2%	3940	28	12	-60	0

*Projected 2007 stats over a 12 game season

What does this all mean? It means that #12's stats are indeed Heisman-caliber. Here is what needs to happen for him to win the thing:

• BC Needs to keep winning. 1 loss probably ends his chances, 2 losses and he's out of the running for sure.
• Improve the completion %. This is on the receivers too but voters don't care. This 3-4 game stretch should help.
• Increase the TDs. Again, now's the time to do it. However, between the dropped pass right before the first TD Saturday night and the fumble on the second drive he lost 2 potential TDs. I am not worried about this stat at all as long as the team is scoring.
• Make sure the INTs don't go up.
• A rushing TD or two would not hurt